Jan 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 10 19:35:37 UTC 2022 (20220110 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220110 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220110 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220110 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220110 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220110 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 101935

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected across parts of central and south
   Florida late this afternoon into tonight.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Scattered thunderstorms have initiated near the surface front now
   advancing southward across the central peninsula, with additional
   storms developing near and just inland of Gulf coastal areas south
   of Tampa, perhaps aided by weak cooling around the 700 mb level. 
   Latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this mid-level cooling will
   continue overspreading south central interior portions of the
   peninsula (mainly across and north of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity)
   through the remainder of the afternoon, before the loss of daytime
   heating contributes to diminishing thunderstorm probabilities over
   the interior peninsula.  Thereafter, as pre-frontal near-surface
   winds veer to a north-northeasterly component this evening into the
   overnight hours, and the front continues to advance southward,
   lingering thunderstorm development is expected to become focused
   near or just offshore of southeastern peninsula Atlantic coastal
   areas.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Jan 10 2022/

   ...FL...
   Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across central
   and south FL today, where strong heating and dewpoints in the
   mid-upper 60s will promote moderate afternoon MLCAPE.  Mid-level
   temperatures are cool (-14C at 500mb), further aiding in the degree
   of instability.  Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
   expected to develop over the east-central and southeastern
   peninsula, perhaps aided by sea-breeze interactions.  Vertical shear
   is weak, limiting much severe threat.  Nevertheless, the strongest
   updrafts may produce small hail and/or gusty winds.  Considered a
   small MRGL east of the lake between MLB and MIA, but the very small
   area and weak vertical shear limit confidence in the severe risk.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z