Jan 11, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 11 05:52:35 UTC 2022 (20220111 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220111 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220111 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220111 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220111 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220111 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 110552

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1152 PM CST Mon Jan 10 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across far
   south Florida in the vicinity of Miami. No severe threat is
   expected.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Atlantic
   today as northwest mid-level flow remains established across much of
   the central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will
   advance southward away from south Florida. A lingering moist airmass
   will remain in the vicinity of Miami where surface dewpoints should
   be in the 60s F. Enough instability is expected near Miami for
   isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon. However,
   instability should be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across
   the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not
   expected today or tonight.

   ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/11/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z