Jan 11, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 11 12:12:58 UTC 2022 (20220111 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220111 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220111 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220111 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220111 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220111 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111212

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0612 AM CST Tue Jan 11 2022

   Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunder will be possible today along immediate coastal
   areas of southeastern Florida.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A mean trough will persist in mid/upper levels over the eastern
   CONUS, with amplifying ridging over the West Coast States.  A weak,
   small, initially cut-off cyclone over southeastern NM and far west
   TX will move eastward and rejoin the prevailing westerlies as a
   deamplifying open wave. reaching the Sabine River vicinity by 12Z
   tomorrow.  With relatively dry and stable low-level conditions, this
   feature should yield only midlevel convection to its east over
   central/southeast TX and southwestern LA, with lightning potential
   too isolated and low for a general thunder area.

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across the northern
   Bahamas and Straits of Florida, to the central Gulf.  This front
   should weaken as it drifts southward.  A nearly collocated surface
   trough, confluence/convergence zone and moist axis extended
   northward between south FL and the Bahamas, which should continue to
   focus isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over/near the Gulf
   Stream.  Though lapse rates will be modest overall, ocean-air
   thermal/moisture fluxes over the Gulf Stream and diurnal heating
   inland should boost MLCAPE into the 500-800 J/kg range along the
   immediate coastal area south of FLL across Biscayne Bay to Elliott
   Key and Key Largo.  1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE will be possible offshore,
   based on modified MFL RAOB and model soundings.  Though theta-e and
   low-level lift will continue to be stronger over open water, where
   the bulk of convection should remain, a few thunderstorms may reach
   land before dissipating.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/11/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z