Jan 12, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 12 12:32:45 UTC 2022 (20220112 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220112 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220112 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220112 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220112 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220112 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121232

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible near coastal areas of
   southeastern Florida and over the Keys.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A broad mid/upper-level cyclone with binary vorticity maxima will
   pivot over the Hudson Bay/northern QC region through the period,
   anchoring a large-scale trough extending southward to the Gulf. 
   This trough will amplify through the period as a series of
   shortwaves pass through northwesterly to cyclonic flow from the
   central to eastern CONUS. One of the shortwave troughs -- apparent
   in moisture-channel imagery over east TX -- should pivot across the
   northern Gulf Coast region today, reaching parts of central/northern
   FL overnight.

   As the mid/upper trough approaches, low-level mass response will
   back flow from a dominant easterly to northerly component.  As this
   occurs, the primary convergence zone aiding the bulk of convective
   potential will shift away from a position north of a decaying
   frontal zone, near the mainland coast and Keys, where it will be
   located much of today.  Until then, isolated to widely scattered
   thunderstorms are possible amidst marginal instability, with MLCAPE
   around 500-800 J/kg over mainland coastal areas, slightly higher in
   the Keys, and up to 1500 J/kg offshore over the optimal thermal
   fluxes of the Gulf Stream.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/12/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z