Jan 12, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 12 19:20:14 UTC 2022 (20220112 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220112 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220112 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220112 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220112 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220112 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 121920

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0120 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms may develop near southeastern Florida
   coastal areas, mainly after midnight EST.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Mid/upper-level trough amplification is underway near/east of the
   Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard.  Within this regime,
   one short wave trough is beginning to dig southeast of the Louisiana
   Gulf coast, and forecast to gradually turn eastward through the base
   of the larger-scale troughing, across the Florida Peninsula, toward
   09-12Z.  In advance of this feature, surface winds are forecast to
   back from easterly to northerly across the Florida Peninsula, to the
   northwest of a developing surface frontal wave.  In response to
   strengthening mid-level support and low-level convergence, models
   generally indicate increasing lift after 06Z, focused near
   southeastern coastal areas.  Given the continuing presence of at
   least weak conditional instability, scattered thunderstorm
   development appears possible.  Although this seems most probable
   near/offshore of coastal areas, both Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast
   soundings suggest that initiation over interior areas around the
   Lake Okeechobee vicinity might not be entirely out of the question.

   ..Kerr.. 01/12/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Wed Jan 12 2022/

   Very similar to yesterday, showers and a few thunderstorms will be
   possible this afternoon and tonight along the coast of southeast FL
   and the Keys - mainly offshore.  Weak shear will continue to
   minimize the risk of severe storms.

   Otherwise, dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm
   activity during this period.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z