Jan 13, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 13 05:28:04 UTC 2022 (20220113 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220113 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220113 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220113 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220113 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220113 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 130528

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CST Wed Jan 12 2022

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Thursday.

   ...Discussion...
   A large upper trough over the eastern U.S. -- initially reinforced
   by a short-wave feature digging southeastward out of the Midwest and
   across the Southeast, will eventually begin to shift eastward
   overnight.  This eastward shift will occur in response to a second
   trough moving inland over the Pacific Northwest early, and then
   digging southeastward into the Intermountain West.

   At the surface, a reinforcing surge of cold air will spread
   southeastward across the Eastern states as the upper system digs
   southeastward.  In the West, a cold front will shift southeastward
   across the Intermountain region in tandem with the western upper
   trough.

   Showers are forecast to be ongoing across the southern Florida
   vicinity early in the period, with a thunderstorm or two just
   offshore.  Showers -- and possibly a thunderstorm -- may also
   approach the North Carolina Outer Banks during the afternoon, though
   inland lightning is not expected.

   Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
   the period.

   ..Goss/Weinman.. 01/13/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z