Jan 13, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 13 12:53:15 UTC 2022 (20220113 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220113 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220113 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220113 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220113 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220113 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 131253

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 AM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

   Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the mainland U.S. today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Large-scale mid/upper-level troughing will persist over the eastern
   CONUS.  A weak shortwave trough and associated speed max -- now
   embedded in northwest flow over portions of IA -- will move
   southeastward and strengthen considerably today, reaching portions
   of AL/GA by 00Z.  The perturbation should continue intensifying as
   it pivots offshore from northern FL, GA and SC overnight, while
   inducing surface cyclogenesis over Atlantic waters well to the east.
   Low-level mass response will intensify the northwesterly to westerly
   gradient flow and negative theta-e advection over FL and adjacent
   waters, causing substantial offshore displacement of favorable
   buoyancy and lift.  In the meantime, convection crossing the lower/ 
   middle Keys may produce sporadic flashes, with a small portion of
   the roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE evident in the morning KEY sounding
   extending into favorable icing layers for lightning.  Thunder also
   will be possible over waters near the southeastern FL coastline, and
   a few flashes may occur just east of the NC Outer Banks as well.

   ..Edwards/Leitman.. 01/13/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z