Jan 14, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 14 05:44:00 UTC 2022 (20220114 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220114 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220114 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220114 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220114 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220114 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 140544

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 PM CST Thu Jan 13 2022

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday
   through Friday night.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently over the northern
   Intermountain West and the other over central Alberta, are forecast
   to continue southeastward throughout the day. The southernmost
   shortwave is expected to reach the southern High Plains by this
   evening, while the northernmost shortwave will reach the central
   Plains. This overall evolution will result in a deep, positively
   tilted upper trough across much of the central CONUS tonight.
   Additional strengthening/maturing is anticipated with the central
   Plains shortwave developing a closed circulation as it moves across
   KS and OK early Saturday morning. 

   Surface cyclogenesis is also anticipated as a result of the
   approaching shortwaves, with a low developing over the northern TX
   Panhandle this morning before then tracking east-southeastward
   throughout the day and overnight. By early Saturday morning, this
   surface low will likely be centered near the Arklatex, with a cold
   front extending southwestward along the TX/LA border to just off the
   TX Coast. Some moisture return is anticipated ahead of this front.
   However, given the cool and dry antecedent conditions across much of
   the western Gulf, any air mass modification will be modest with 60s
   dewpoints limited to the immediate coast. Even in areas with 60s
   dewpoints, warm temperatures aloft will limit buoyancy, precluding
   thunderstorm development.

   Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere across the CONUS.

   ..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/14/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z