Jan 14, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 14 12:43:53 UTC 2022 (20220114 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220114 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220114 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220114 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220114 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220114 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141243

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022

   Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorm areas are expected over the conterminous U.S.
   through tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Mean mid/upper-level troughing will be maintained through the period
   over about the eastern half of the CONUS.  On its western fringes,
   split flow will develop as a closed cyclone evolves from the phasing
   process of two presently open shortwave troughs:
   1.  A perturbation now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over WY,
   UT and NV.  This will move southeastward across the Four Corners
   region today, then be absorbed tonight into the strengthening
   cyclonic-flow field of...
   2.  A shortwave trough now over southern MB, northwestern ND and
   east-central MT, that will dig south-southeastward across the
   northern/central Plains through 06Z, with a 500-mb low developing
   over NE.
   By 12Z tomorrow, the resulting, strengthening mid/upper cyclone
   should be located over KS/OK, centered in the ICT/PNC area.

   As a result, strong cyclogenesis/frontogenesis is expected today and
   especially tonight over the central/southern Plains.  By 12Z, a cold
   front should arc from a frontal-wave low over western MO through
   another low over northeast TX, then southwestward to northern
   Coahuila.  Intense large-scale forcing for ascent is expected within
   an elevated warm-advection conveyor tonight, across the lower
   Missouri Valley region and into the northern Ozarks by 12Z.  While
   this will support a growing field of precip (rain in southern parts,
   mainly snow in the rest), and very isolated lightning cannot be
   ruled out around the end of the period from midlevel convection in
   the western Ozarks region, instability should remain too weak to
   support a general thunder area.  With post-cold-frontal,
   continental/polar offshore flow in low levels now observed over the
   northern Gulf, insufficient airmass modification will occur to
   support thunderstorm potential farther south -- along the cold front
   or in the warm sector -- until day 2.

   ..Edwards.. 01/14/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z