Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141615
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible in the pre-dawn hours
tomorrow morning across parts of Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
...AR/northern LA...
A shortwave trough will dig south across the Great Plains through
the period. This will induce a surface cyclone tracking from the
southern High Plains to the Ark-La-Tex, with a sharp cold front
sweeping across the southern Great Plains. Increasing low-level warm
theta-e advection ahead of the cyclone might support scant elevated
buoyancy developing between 09-12Z. Most HREF members suggest
showers will form near 12Z within this regime. Just-in-time
mid-level cooling with the approaching trough might prove adequate
for charge separation from a few cells by 12Z. Overall, thunderstorm
probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.
..Grams.. 01/14/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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