Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 141937
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022
Valid 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible in the pre-dawn hours
tomorrow morning, mainly across parts of western through southern
Arkansas.
...20Z Outlook Update...
The general forecast remains unchanged. However, minor adjustment
to the 10 percent thunder probability line has been made, based on
the past few runs of the Rapid Refresh and the latest run of the
ECMWF.
..Kerr.. 01/14/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022/
...AR/northern LA...
A shortwave trough will dig south across the Great Plains through
the period. This will induce a surface cyclone tracking from the
southern High Plains to the Ark-La-Tex, with a sharp cold front
sweeping across the southern Great Plains. Increasing low-level warm
theta-e advection ahead of the cyclone might support scant elevated
buoyancy developing between 09-12Z. Most HREF members suggest
showers will form near 12Z within this regime. Just-in-time
mid-level cooling with the approaching trough might prove adequate
for charge separation from a few cells by 12Z. Overall, thunderstorm
probabilities appear to be around 10 percent.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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