Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150029
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible in the pre-dawn hours,
mainly across parts of western through southern Arkansas.
...Arkansas...
Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper vort along the
SD/NE border, digging south in line with latest model guidance. Warm
conveyor belt currently extends across the central Plains into the
mid MS Valley and a narrow band of weak convection has developed
behind the front from west of ICT-northwest of TOP where 3-6km lapse
rates are steep and saturated. This activity will continue to sag
southeast ahead of the short wave, ultimately progressing into
western/central AR prior to daybreak. Forecast soundings suggest a
lightning flash cannot be ruled out with this activity, though the
majority of convection will remain lightning-free.
..Darrow.. 01/15/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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