St. Petersburg, FL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
15,866
2,040,548
Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
24,313
3,505,451
St. Petersburg, FL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Clearwater, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 150525
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Fri Jan 14 2022
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts
of the north-central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico. One or two of
these storms might impact the coastal waters from southeast
Louisiana to areas north of Tampa, and pose some risk for severe
weather along coastal areas before weakening while spreading inland.
...Gulf Coast...
Strong upper low is currently digging south across the central
Plains. This feature is forecast to deepen a bit as it progresses
into the Arklatex by 16/00z then into eastern MS by the end of the
period. 150-180m 12hr height falls are forecast ahead of this
feature which will encourage a surface low to settle southeast
across LA to near MOB by late afternoon. Subsequent movement
downstream across southern AL during the overnight hours will
generate more favorable low-level trajectories for moisture to
advance toward the Coast. Even so, air mass currently located over
the Gulf Basin has yet to modify with 60s surface dew points
confined to the western quarter of the Basin at 05z. Boundary-layer
moisture is seasonally dry farther east across the FL Peninsula
where 30s/40s are noted across northern/central portions of the
state.
While moisture/buoyancy are limited across the lower MS Valley late
this evening, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/ahead the front early in the period as large-scale forcing for
ascent will be focused and strong. Some heating is expected ahead of
the wind shift across southeast LA and this should aid instability
where lower 60s surface dew points are expected to advance inland
prior to frontal passage. A few strong storms may develop within
this modifying return air mass, primarily affecting southeast LA
before spreading toward the AL Coast ahead of the surface low. Most
buoyant air mass will remain offshore but LLJ will strengthen to
near 70kt after sunset over the northeast Gulf Basin into southern
GA. Strengthening shear across this region will enhance the threat
of a few low-instability supercells, especially near the Coast.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/15/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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