St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...Pinellas Park, FL...
MARGINAL
26,477
4,213,971
Tampa, FL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Brandon, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
6,152
1,528,209
St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...Pinellas Park, FL...
2 %
18,475
3,226,969
Tampa, FL...Mobile, AL...Spring Hill, FL...Brandon, FL...Bradenton, FL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
3,048
1,531,922
St. Petersburg, FL...Clearwater, FL...Largo, FL...Palm Harbor, FL...Pinellas Park, FL...
5 %
30,482
4,432,304
Tampa, FL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Spring Hill, FL...Brandon, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 151623
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1023 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022
Valid 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE FL
GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible tonight in a
portion of the Florida Panhandle coast and in the early morning
along coastal west-central Florida.
...FL...
Surface cyclone over the Lower MS Valley will deepen in advance of
an amplifying shortwave trough tracking from OK/TX to the central
Gulf Coast States. Surface-based instability in the warm/moist
sector ahead of this cyclone is currently confined to the western
Gulf into southern LA as a continental air mass remains pervasive
downstream. However, further modification of the Gulf is expected
throughout the period, yielding the likelihood of meager
surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg) shifting east
along much of the central to eastern Gulf Coast through early
tomorrow morning.
Strengthening low-level wind fields attendant to the cyclogenesis
tonight, especially late in the period, should result in enlarging
hodographs overlapping with the northern periphery of the buoyancy
plume. This is most likely to occur first in the Big Bend region.
Here, persistent convection within the warm conveyor may eventually
intensify this evening, yielding potential for a few embedded
supercells. A couple tornadoes should be the primary hazard with
locally damaging winds also possible. Overnight, a broken to
fully-mature squall line should develop near the highly convergent
surface cold front. Bows with embedded supercell and mesovortex
structures may reach northwest to west-central FL prior to 12Z.
Threats for a couple tornadoes and damaging winds are apparent along
the immediate coast, but will still be conditionally dependent on
adequate surface-based instability reaching the coast prior to 12Z.
..Grams/Lyons.. 01/15/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
| 
)
