SPC AC 151955

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 PM CST Sat Jan 15 2022

   Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
   FLORIDA GULF COAST....

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes and locally damaging winds are possible tonight in a
   portion of the Florida Panhandle coast and in the early morning
   along coastal west-central Florida.

   ...20Z Update...
   Recent surface analysis places a low over west-central MS, with a
   cold front extending southward through southwest MS and adjacent
   southeast LA. Overall forecast evolution described in the previous
   outlook remains valid, with thunderstorm coverage increasing along
   the front over time this afternoon through tonight along the Gulf
   Coast. Strengthening wind fields should lead to increasing intensity
   and organization along the front, particularly in the 06-12Z time
   frame. Bowing line segments within the broader convective line could
   result in mesovortex structures and the potential for damaging wind
   gusts and a couple of tornadoes.

   ..Mosier.. 01/15/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sat Jan 15 2022/

   ...FL...
   Surface cyclone over the Lower MS Valley will deepen in advance of
   an amplifying shortwave trough tracking from OK/TX to the central
   Gulf Coast States. Surface-based instability in the warm/moist
   sector ahead of this cyclone is currently confined to the western
   Gulf into southern LA as a continental air mass remains pervasive
   downstream. However, further modification of the Gulf is expected
   throughout the period, yielding the likelihood of meager
   surface-based buoyancy (MLCAPE at or below 500 J/kg) shifting east
   along much of the central to eastern Gulf Coast through early
   tomorrow morning. 

   Strengthening low-level wind fields attendant to the cyclogenesis
   tonight, especially late in the period, should result in enlarging
   hodographs overlapping with the northern periphery of the buoyancy
   plume. This is most likely to occur first in the Big Bend region.
   Here, persistent convection within the warm conveyor may eventually
   intensify this evening, yielding potential for a few embedded
   supercells. A couple tornadoes should be the primary hazard with
   locally damaging winds also possible. Overnight, a broken to
   fully-mature squall line should develop near the highly convergent
   surface cold front. Bows with embedded supercell and mesovortex
   structures may reach northwest to west-central FL prior to 12Z.
   Threats for a couple tornadoes and damaging winds are apparent along
   the immediate coast, but will still be conditionally dependent on
   adequate surface-based instability reaching the coast prior to 12Z.

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