Jan 17, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 17 12:30:26 UTC 2022 (20220117 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220117 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220117 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220117 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220117 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220117 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022

   Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Mid/upper-level troughing in the eastern CONUS will shift eastward
   and offshore all but New England by the end of the period.  This
   will occur as the dominant subsynoptic cyclone now over the
   Mid-Atlantic ejects northeastward to southeastern Canada through
   tonight and weakens considerably, deteriorating to a small, open
   shortwave trough.  In its wake, northwest flow aloft will prevail
   over most of the northern and eastern CONUS, while a post-cold-
   frontal continental/polar boundary layer generally precludes
   thunderstorm potential.  Elevated convection in the precursory warm
   conveyor may yield brief/isolated lightning near ACK in the next
   couple hours, but potential appears too low/conditional to introduce
   a categorical/10%-coverage area.  

   Meanwhile, a closed mid/upper cyclone -- evident in moisture-channel
   imagery offshore from CA -- will move inland across southern CA
   tonight, but with too little moisture/instability to support
   thunderstorms.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/17/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z