Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171940
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today.
...20Z Update...
A flash or two remains possible across Downeast ME but coverage is
still expected to remain less than 10 percent. Thunderstorms are not
anticipated elsewhere across the CONUS.
..Mosier.. 01/17/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Jan 17 2022/
...ME...
Minimal mid-level buoyancy may develop just ahead of the dry slot
attendant to the shortwave trough over western New England. This
buoyancy profile should largely overlap the back edge of robust
forcing for ascent coincident with the dendritic growth zone. While
this will maintain heavy snowfall rates in parts of the state
through this afternoon, prospects for charge separation appear
negligible and mitigate a 10 percent thunderstorm probability area.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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