Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 180521
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Mon Jan 17 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is low through Tuesday night.
...Southwestern US...
Weak upper low off the southern CA coast is progressing east toward
the lower CO River Valley. Latest model guidance suggest this
feature will shift into AZ later this afternoon as 500mb speed max
translates across northern Mexico into far west TX during the latter
half of the period. Large-scale forcing for ascent ahead of this
feature will contribute to mid-level moistening such that weak
buoyancy is expected to develop within a steep lapse rate
environment. While forecast soundings suggest shallow, weak
convection may develop ahead of the short wave, cloud depths should
generally prove inadequate for lightning probabilities during the
day1 period.
..Darrow/Moore.. 01/18/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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