Jan 18, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 18 12:45:23 UTC 2022 (20220118 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220118 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220118 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220118 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220118 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220118 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 181245

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

   Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   No thunderstorm areas are expected over the conterminous U.S.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   Following the departure of the strong subsynoptic trough from the
   Northeast, nearly zonal mid/upper-level flow is expected for most of
   the period over the central/eastern CONUS.  Positively tilted mean
   troughing is expected to develop by the end of the period, over the
   north-central through southwestern CONUS.  This process will be
   related to partial phasing of these northern and southern stream
   perturbations, respectively:

   1.  A strong shortwave trough -- initially evident in moisture-
   channel imagery over the northernmost reaches of the Canadian
   Prairie Provinces.  This feature should move southeastward and
   amplify, reaching a position from near James Bay to Lake Superior,
   northern MN, ND, and eastern MT, by 12Z tomorrow.
   2.  A broad, but not particularly strong, perturbation initially
   over southern parts of NV/CA and southwestward over Pacific waters
   west of northern Baja.  This feature should move eastward to the
   southern High Plains by 12Z, aiding in low-level warm advection
   ahead of the cold front described below.

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over the ND/MB line, near
   the International Peace Garden, related to the northern-stream
   mid/upper trough.  A warm front was drawn southeastward to Lake
   Michigan, with a cold front arching across southwestern ND and
   southeastern/south-central to northwestern MT.  The cyclone should
   deepen and move eastward to lake Superior by 00Z, with cold front
   reaching southeastern MN, south-central NE and eastern CO.  By 12Z,
   the cold front should extend across southeastern Lower MI, southern
   IL, the Ozarks, southwestern OK, and east-central NM.

   A separate, weaker low initially drawn near AMA will move east-
   southeastward down the Red River Valley -- ahead of the southern-
   stream perturbation -- and should be overtaken by the cold front
   within a couple hours of the end of the period.  Given the
   continental/polar air mass still present over the Gulf and central/
   eastern CONUS following the last major cold front, return-flow
   marine modification ahead of the newer cold front will be too
   limited to yield enough moisture/instability for thunderstorms,
   until the day-2 period.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/18/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z