Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 190031
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will linger this evening across the southwestern
US.
...Southwestern US...
Progressive short-wave trough is advancing east near the AZ/NM
border this evening. Large-scale forcing for ascent has contributed
to mid-level moistening and scattered showers across southeastern AZ
into southwestern NM. A few of these showers have deepened enough to
produce a few flashes of lightning. 00z sounding from TUS exhibited
a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE with modestly steep mid-level lapse rates
which is likely aiding this activity. Will maintain low thunder
probabilities across this region, especially for this evening.
..Darrow.. 01/19/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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