Jan 20, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 20 12:25:35 UTC 2022 (20220120 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220120 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220120 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220120 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220120 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220120 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201225

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

   Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   In mid/upper levels, a series of nearly phased shortwaves will
   result in positively tilted troughing shifting eastward across
   eastern Canada, the Great Lakes region, the central/southern Plains,
   and northwestern/north-central MX through this period.  Substantial
   associated mid/upper-level forcing for ascent is expected to remain
   well behind an associated surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from
   southern New England across central VA, northern GA, to a weak low
   over coastal MS, then southwestward across the northwestern Gulf to
   near BRO.  By 00Z, the front should extend from just off the NC
   Outer Banks southwestward across southern GA, the central/eastern FL
   Panhandle, and the central/southwestern Gulf.  By 12Z tomorrow, the
   front should reach northern FL and the south-central Gulf, while
   decelerating. 

   As this front progresses along the central/eastern Gulf Coast today,
   it will encounter an immaturely modified boundary layer still
   retaining a good deal of continental/polar characteristics from
   behind prior frontal near the front, supported by low-level moisture
   manifest as warm-sector dew points in the 60s along the coast.  Weak
   mid/upper-level lapse rates will limit buoyant depth, which (along
   with weak surface winds veering with time) will limit effective-
   shear magnitudes, keeping them at around 20-35 kt -- considerably
   less than fixed-layer (0-6-km) shear.  Between that factor,
   potentially messy storm modes under strongly front-parallel flow
   aloft, and weak buoyancy (MLCAPE generally under 500 J/kg), severe
   potential appears too low and conditional for any categorical areas.

   Isolated thunderstorms also will be possible over parts of south FL
   and the Keys, mainly late this afternoon into early evening.  Richer
   low-level moisture -- now prevalent across the Keys and southern
   Straits -- should spread somewhat northward.  Forecast soundings
   suggest enough boundary-layer moisture to support MLCAPE near 500
   J/kg, some of which briefly may reach into layers supporting
   lightning generation -- albeit with weak lapse rates continuing in
   the mid/upper levels.  Winds will veer with height, but remain weak
   below about 800 mb, limiting low-level shear.  Lack of stronger
   values of both buoyancy and shear will preclude an organized severe
   threat.

   ..Edwards/Broyles.. 01/20/2022

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