Jan 20, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 20 16:24:18 UTC 2022 (20220120 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220120 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220120 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220120 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220120 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220120 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 201624

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1024 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States today.

   ...Synopsis...
   In the mid-levels, a positive-tilt shortwave trough initially over
   the Midwest/Mississippi Valley will consolidate with a weaker
   southern stream perturbation across the Mid-South as they move east
   toward the coast today. Apart of the broader central/eastern US
   troughing, they should remain behind a surface cold front analyzed
   from the central Carolinas to the western Florida Panhandle and
   southern Gulf Coast. The airmass ahead of the front is of poor
   quality given prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico in
   the preceding days. The poor phasing of synoptic lift combined with
   limited surface moisture ahead of the front suggests thunderstorm
   potential onshore will be limited.

   ...Gulf Coast...
   Model soundings show MLCAPE values of less than 250 J/kg across much
   of the FL Panhandle, southern MS/AL and the LA Delta. As the front
   continues southeast this afternoon, surface moisture and buoyancy
   should continue to be removed farther away from the influence of the
   approaching mid-level troughs. While a few clusters of weak storms
   are expected to move onshore through the early afternoon near the
   front, issues with onshore moisture return and poor synoptic lift
   suggest overall severe potential will remain negligible.

   ...Southern Florida...
   Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across far southern
   portions of the FL Peninsula and Keys today and tonight. Ahead of
   the approaching synoptic front, weak onshore flow across the eastern
   shore has allowed some moisture recovery inland. Despite poor lapse
   rates and very limited synoptic forcing for ascent, a few
   thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries through the
   afternoon. Displaced from the approaching upper troughs, deep-layer
   shear will remain weak, generally below 25 kts. The limited shear
   and buoyancy suggests little potential for storm organization.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/20/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z