SPC AC 201942

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

   Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
   States today.

   ...20z Update...

   The 10 percent General Thunderstorm area has been trimmed and
   confined to portions of the FL Panhandle. A few lightning flashes
   will remain possible over the next few hours across this area as the
   surface cold front continues to shift east/southeast. Otherwise,
   isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern FL Peninsula
   through early evening. Severe storms are not expected.

   ..Leitman.. 01/20/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   In the mid-levels, a positive-tilt shortwave trough initially over
   the Midwest/Mississippi Valley will consolidate with a weaker
   southern stream perturbation across the Mid-South as they move east
   toward the coast today. Apart of the broader central/eastern US
   troughing, they should remain behind a surface cold front analyzed
   from the central Carolinas to the western Florida Panhandle and
   southern Gulf Coast. The airmass ahead of the front is of poor
   quality given prior frontal intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico in
   the preceding days. The poor phasing of synoptic lift combined with
   limited surface moisture ahead of the front suggests thunderstorm
   potential onshore will be limited.

   ...Gulf Coast...
   Model soundings show MLCAPE values of less than 250 J/kg across much
   of the FL Panhandle, southern MS/AL and the LA Delta. As the front
   continues southeast this afternoon, surface moisture and buoyancy
   should continue to be removed farther away from the influence of the
   approaching mid-level troughs. While a few clusters of weak storms
   are expected to move onshore through the early afternoon near the
   front, issues with onshore moisture return and poor synoptic lift
   suggest overall severe potential will remain negligible.

   ...Southern Florida...
   Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across far southern
   portions of the FL Peninsula and Keys today and tonight. Ahead of
   the approaching synoptic front, weak onshore flow across the eastern
   shore has allowed some moisture recovery inland. Despite poor lapse
   rates and very limited synoptic forcing for ascent, a few
   thunderstorms may develop along sea-breeze boundaries through the
   afternoon. Displaced from the approaching upper troughs, deep-layer
   shear will remain weak, generally below 25 kts. The limited shear
   and buoyancy suggests little potential for storm organization.

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