SPC AC 210548

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   SOUTH FLORIDA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may occur Friday
   across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula. Occasional damaging
   wind gusts and marginally severe hail appear possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively tilted mid-level trough will move from the Ohio Valley
   to the mid-Atlantic coast by early Saturday morning. A surface low
   is expected to develop over the western Atlantic as this trough
   approaches. A stalled surface front is expected to remain across the
   northern Florida peninsula through the period.

   ...South Florida...
   The primary cold front will remain across the northern Florida
   Peninsula during the period. However, this morning, surface
   dewpoints are in the 50s across much of the Peninsula with the mid
   to upper 60s dewpoints starting near Lake OKEECHOBEE and extending
   southward. This region of higher low-level moisture is where
   moderate destabilization is expected. Forcing will remain weak
   across the region with neutral height changes across the region and
   the surface front farther north. However, forecast soundings show an
   uncapped environment which could support an isolated thunderstorm or
   two. Any thunderstorms which can develop may struggle to reach
   severe limits given marginal deep layer shear and weak lapse rates.
   Despite these limiting factors, at least an isolated threat of large
   hail or a damaging wind gust will exist if any strong storms can
   develop this afternoon/evening.

   ..Bentley/Wendt.. 01/21/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z