Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 211253
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
A strong to severe thunderstorm or two may occur this afternoon
across the southern Florida Peninsula, with damaging wind gusts and
marginally severe hail possible on an isolated basis.
...South Florida...
Will maintain low severe probabilities for a seemingly limited, or
at least uncertain, potential for a strong/locally severe storm or
two this afternoon. Overnight showers and a few thunderstorms
continue to drift eastward away from the southeast Florida Peninsula
around daybreak. Lingering cloud cover should break/thin into the
afternoon with minimal inhibition within a seasonally moist
environment. South Florida will remain south of the
southward-sagging synoptic cold front. However, a sea breeze could
influence the development of a few thunderstorms across the
southeast Florida Peninsula late this afternoon, within a regime
otherwise characterized by weak forcing. If inland development
occurs/matures this afternoon, adequate instability and a moderately
long/semi-straight hodograph (upwards of 35-40 kt effective shear)
might support marginally severe hail and/or gusty winds.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/21/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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