Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 211938
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail or strong outflow gusts may occur
through early evening across southeast Florida.
...20z Update...
The ongoing outlook remains on track and no changes are needed with
the 20z update. Agitated CU are evident across south FL as
temperatures have warmed to near 80 F ahead of the stalled frontal
boundary and along a weak sea breeze boundary along the southeast
coast. Instability remains modest, with 19z mesoanalysis indicating
around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Nevertheless, effective shear magnitudes
greater than 35 kt reside over the region. If storms develop, a
couple of strong to severe storms capable of locally damaging gusts
and marginally severe hail remain possible through early evening.
..Leitman.. 01/21/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022/
...Southeast FL this afternoon...
Surface heating is underway within cloud break across southeast FL,
immediately southeast of a stalled front. Temperatures warming into
the upper 70s with dewpoints near 70 F will result in MLCAPE near or
just above 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Background forcing for ascent
will be weak, so localized ascent along the stalled front and any
diffuse sea breeze boundaries suggest that only isolated storms will
form this afternoon across southeast FL. Midlevel lapse rates will
not be particularly steep (6.5-7 C/km) and low-level flow will
remain weak, but the moderate buoyancy and some stronger flow aloft
(as reflected in effective bulk shear near 35 kt) could support a
low-end organized/supercell storm capable of producing marginally
severe hail and isolated strong outflow gusts later this afternoon.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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