Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 220041
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 220100Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail and/or a strong outflow gust or two remain
possible this evening across southeast Florida.
...Discussion...
South of the slowly advancing cold front -- which has now reached
the Lake Okeechobee vicinity -- a moist/modestly unstable airmass
remains in place (objective analysis and the OOZ KMFL (Miami) RAOB
indicating up to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE).
Near a weakening east-coast sea-breeze boundary, a couple of cells
are ongoing over portions of Broward and northern Miami-Dade
Counties, with the strongest storm -- exhibiting weak rotation --
moving eastward across central Broward County.
With ample CAPE in place, and winds veering and increasing with
height to yield 0-6km shear sufficient for organized updrafts, very
limited/local severe potential remains over southeastern Florida.
Risk should gradually wane with time, as storms eventually move
offshore.
..Goss.. 01/22/2022
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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