Jan 22, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 22 05:13:56 UTC 2022 (20220122 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220122 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220122 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220122 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220122 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220122 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 220513

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. today.

   ...Discussion...
   Mean upper troughing will continue over the eastern half of the U.S.
   today, with several smaller-scale features rotating through the
   larger-scale wave.  Meanwhile in the West, ridging will prevail,
   aside from an upper low that is progged to remain centered in the
   vicinity of the Arizona/Mexico border through the period.

   At the surface, the trailing portion of a cold front crossing the
   western Atlantic will move slowly southward across the Florida
   Peninsula, and eventually offshore during the second half of the
   period.  Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across much of the
   country, though the trailing portion of a Canadian cold front will
   cross the Great Lakes region during the day.  In the wake of this
   front, a clipper-type low is forecast to move across the Northern
   Plains during the first half of the period, and into the Midwest
   overnight.  

   Given cold continental air across much of the country, thunderstorm
   activity will remain confined to areas south of the front crossing
   Florida.  Showers are expected near the front, and possibly a
   thunderstorm or two over far southern Florida during the afternoon. 
   Severe weather is not expected.

   ..Goss/Wendt.. 01/22/2022

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