Jan 22, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 22 12:30:43 UTC 2022 (20220122 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220122 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220122 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220122 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220122 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220122 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221230

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022

   Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   An amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the CONUS,
   characterized by mean upper troughing over the eastern half of the
   U.S. and split flow over the West, which includes a
   southward-shifting upper low near the Lower Colorado River
   Valley/Southwest Deserts. At the surface, the trailing portion of a
   cold front crossing the western Atlantic will move southward across
   the Florida Peninsula, and be entirely offshore by tonight.

   With cold continental air across much of the country, thunderstorm
   potential will be relegated to areas near the aforementioned front
   crossing southern Florida. Showers are expected near the front, with
   a couple of thunderstorms possible over far southern Florida through
   the afternoon, particularly near the southeast coast and Upper Keys.
   Severe weather is not expected.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/22/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z