Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221626
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes may occur late today into tonight across
parts of Arizona.
...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will continue to move southeastward across/off
the southeast FL coast and Keys during the day, with the primary
threat for thunderstorms focused along the wind shift across the FL
Straits and just off the southeast FL coast. Farther west, a closed
midlevel low will continue to drift southeastward over southwest
AZ/Sonora through Sunday morning. Relatively cool midlevel
temperatures and sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates, along with
a gradual increase in low-midlevel moisture, could result in just
enough buoyancy for isolated lightning flashes by late today into
tonight within the arc of what is now shallow/midlevel convection
from the Rim into south central AZ.
..Thompson.. 01/22/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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