Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 230027
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning flashes remain possible across parts of Arizona.
...AZ...
Center of upper low has settled southeast to near the AZ/Sonora
border and this feature is expected to drift south into northwest
Mexico during the overnight hours. Numerous showers have developed
beneath this low across the southern half of AZ with deeper
convection now producing lightning from northwest Maricopa county
into southwest Yavapai county. Steep lapse rates and cold mid-level
temperatures are contributing to profiles supportive of updrafts
attaining levels necessary for lightning production. 00z sounding
from TUS supports weak convection with MUCAPE on the order of 100
J/kg and 8.5 C/km surface-6km lapse rates. Given these conditions,
isolated thunderstorms could linger beneath the upper low tonight.
..Darrow.. 01/23/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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