Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 230524
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Sat Jan 22 2022
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico.
...Southwestern US...
00z model guidance continues to suggest the upper low currently
located along the AZ/Sonora border will shift east later today as
500mb speed max rotates through the base of the low toward the Big
Bend region of west TX by the end of the period. Steep lapse rates
and cold temperatures north of the mid-level jet will contribute to
weak buoyancy beneath the upper low. This should be more than
adequate for weak convection aided by diurnal heating. Forecast
sounding for DUG later this afternoon suggests MUCAPE in excess of
200 J/kg which would permit cloud tops well above levels necessary
for lightning discharge. For these reasons will continue with low
thunderstorm probabilities for portions of southern AZ and NM.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/23/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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