Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 231249
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0649 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022
Valid 231300Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible across southeast Arizona
and southwest New Mexico today.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be very low over the CONUS owing to the
prevalence of cold continental trajectories. As one exception, will
maintain low thunderstorm probabilities (around 10%) for portions of
southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico today. This is associated
with the northern periphery of an eastward-moving southern-stream
upper low near the International Border vicinity. Thermodynamic
profiles will be marginal, but steep lapse rates and minimal
buoyancy could support a few lightning flashes through the
afternoon.
..Guyer/Broyles.. 01/23/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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