Jan 24, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 24 00:47:20 UTC 2022 (20220124 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220124 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220124 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220124 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220124 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220124 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 240047

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak convection, mostly lightning-free, will be possible
   from southeast Arizona into portions of west Texas tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Weak convection has developed beneath the upper low, north of the
   primary jet, across southeastern AZ/southern NM/far west TX. Deepest
   updrafts have yet to penetrate levels required for lightning
   discharge and with the loss of daytime heating, this process is less
   likely. While a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out early
   this evening across southeast AZ/southwest NM, and perhaps into west
   TX later tonight, the probability for thunderstorms appears less
   than 10 percent. For these reasons thunderstorms are not forecast
   through sunrise.

   ..Darrow.. 01/24/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z