Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 240535
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 PM CST Sun Jan 23 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
western Louisiana beginning late on Monday.
...TX/LA...
Water-vapor imagery depicts the center of an upper low just south of
the NM border over northern Mexico, shifting east toward TX in line
with latest model guidance. This low will open up and deamplify as
it approaches the lower MS Valley late in the period. In response to
this feature, a weak surface wave has formed off the south TX coast
and a low should evolve and track across the northwestern Gulf
Basin, likely remaining south of the LA coast Monday night. As a
result, low-level warm advection in advance of the short wave will
contribute to elevated convection north of the boundary across
southeast TX into western LA. Some of this activity is expected to
generate lightning. Forecast soundings are not particularly buoyant
with the most unstable parcels being lifted well above 850mb much of
the period.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/24/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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