Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 241936
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into
southwest Louisiana through tonight.
No changes were made to the previous outlook.
..Jewell.. 01/24/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022/
...Northwest Gulf coast through tonight...
Only minor adjustments to the outlook area. Surface cyclogenesis is
underway along a baroclinic zone near the middle TX coast, and this
cyclone will progress eastward across the northwest/north central
Gulf of Mexico in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough now over
west TX. Modifying surface warm sector will remain offshore, which
will preclude any threat for severe storms inland. Elevated
convection will produce occasional lightning flashes in the zone of
warm advection/ascent preceding the midlevel trough, based on weak
buoyancy and 7-7.5 C/km lapse rates in roughly the 700-500 mb layer.
The threat for thunderstorms will spread eastward across southeast
TX today and persist into southwest LA through tonight.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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