Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 250525
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Mon Jan 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
and southern Florida.
...Florida...
Weakening mid-level short-wave trough over east TX is forecast to
deamplify further over the next 24-36hr as it tracks across the Gulf
States and off the SC/GA Coast Tuesday night. This feature will
prove partly responsible for forcing a weak surface low across the
northern Gulf Basin where it will be shunted southeast and further
weaken, well west of the southern FL Peninsula. Air mass over FL is
currently cool and dry, and significant moistening is required
before sufficient buoyancy will be in place for potential
thunderstorm development. While low levels need considerable
moistening before SBCAPE can develop, mid-level saturation is
forecast by early evening such that elevated convection appears
possible after sunset. Where surface dew points can rise into the
upper 60s along the southern Gulf Coast, there is some potential for
a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE by the end of the period. Regardless,
weak surface-3km flow does not look particularly conducive for any
meaningful threat of severe, especially given the weakening offshore
surface low.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/25/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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