Jan 25, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 25 12:47:51 UTC 2022 (20220125 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220125 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220125 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220125 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220125 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220125 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251247

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

   Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
   and southern Florida tonight/early Wednesday.

   ...Florida...
   Thunderstorms are ongoing over the north-central Gulf of Mexico in
   the predawn hours, roughly 250+ miles south of Mobile, AL and 250+
   miles west of Tampa Bay, FL. These storms are influenced by an
   eastward-moving/minimal-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough
   over the Lower Mississippi Valley and northwest Gulf of Mexico, with
   this system expected to gradually deamplify as it reaches Florida
   and the coastal Southeast tonight.

   The downstream air mass across Florida is currently cool and dry,
   with some moistening expected across the Keys vicinity into the
   southern Florida Peninsula tonight through early Wednesday. This
   trend will allow for an increasing potential for elevated
   thunderstorms over the southern/central Peninsula tonight. The more
   organized/sustained storms are expected to remain over the open Gulf
   of Mexico, as the ongoing storms will outpace inland air mass
   modification and the aforementioned moistening that is expected
   tonight. While some stronger storms could approach the Lower Keys
   general vicinity tonight, the potential for organized severe storms
   is currently expected to remain low.

   ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/25/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z