Jan 26, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 26 00:40:25 UTC 2022 (20220126 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220126 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220126 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220126 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220126 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220126 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260040

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

   Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated weak thunderstorms are expected across portions of central
   and southern Florida tonight.

   ...South Florida...

   Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across AL/northern Gulf
   Basin toward the southeast Atlantic Coast. Surface low along the
   southern influence of this feature is forecast to drift southeast
   toward the FL Straits and weaken as large-scale forcing spreads well
   northeast of this region. As a result, low-level warm advection will
   remain the primary mechanism for scattered elevated convection
   across the southern Peninsula, although most thunderstorms are
   currently focused along the cold front over the southeast Basin. LLJ
   is forecast to remain focused across south FL and this will
   contribute to deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning.

   ..Darrow.. 01/26/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z