Jan 26, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 26 05:49:18 UTC 2022 (20220126 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220126 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220126 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220126 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220126 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220126 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 260549

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
   Florida Wednesday.  Severe weather is not forecast.

   ...Southern Florida...

   Deamplifying short-wave trough is moving across GA/northern FL late
   this evening. As a result, mid-level flow will become decidedly
   westerly with a few weak disturbances expected to translate across
   low latitudes toward the FL Peninsula. Air mass over FL is
   seasonally cool with stable boundary-layer conditions as higher
   quality moisture currently resides across the Keys/FL Straits. Deep
   convection, with lightning, continues along the front over the
   southeast Gulf Basin where buoyancy is considerably greater, and
   this activity will likely struggle to move inland until moisture
   advances north across south FL. Even so, forecast soundings exhibit
   pseudo-adiabatic lapse rates in the lowest 5-6km; although, adequate
   deep-layer shear could sustain convection. While SBCAPE will
   increase as moisture returns, poor lapse rates and weak low-level
   flow suggest the primary risk with this convection will be locally
   heavy rainfall, and severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/26/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z