Jan 26, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 26 12:56:03 UTC 2022 (20220126 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220126 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220126 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220126 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220126 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220126 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 261256

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

   Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
   Florida today through early evening, although severe storms are not
   expected.

   ...South Florida...
   A weakening southern-stream shortwave trough continues to steadily
   progress offshore toward the Atlantic, with neutral/slightly rising
   heights today in its wake. Additional low-level moistening will
   continue to occur today into the southern Florida Peninsula
   near/south of a west/east-oriented front, and ahead of a weak
   surface wave that will transition from the eastern Gulf of Mexico
   toward off the southeast Peninsula by tonight. 

   Mid-level subsidence may have a detrimental effect, but weak
   convergence near the front, perhaps aided by an east-coast sea
   breeze, will influence shower/thunderstorm development into this
   afternoon within an increasingly moist and modestly unstable air
   mass. A couple of stronger/sustained storms could materialize in the
   presence of 800-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and moderately long/semi-straight
   hodographs. However, the influences of weak convergence, weakening
   low-level winds, a lingering subsidence inversion aloft, and
   pseudo-adiabatic lapse rates are expected to temper
   updraft/downdraft intensity, likely keeping the potential for severe
   storms low.

   ..Guyer/Bentley.. 01/26/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z