Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 261911
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
Florida through the early evening, although severe storms are not
expected.
...Discussion...
No change was made to the previous convective outlook.
..Smith.. 01/26/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022/
...Synopsis...
A cold front will drift southward into south FL through the day and
into tonight. Larger-scale forcing for ascent will be weak given
only subtle perturbations within a zonal flow regime aloft, but
storm coverage could be aided some by pockets of surface heating
within cloud breaks this afternoon. Despite MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg
this afternoon and effective bulk shear near 35 kt, poor midlevel
lapse rates and weak low-level flow both suggest that severe storms
are unlikely.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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