SPC AC 270433

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1033 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
   U.S. today through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that amplified large-scale ridging will persist
   within the westerlies across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into
   western North America through this period.  Highest mid-level
   heights may develop across, then shift east-southeast of, the Oregon
   Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada vicinity, to the northeast of a
   developing low within embedded troughing offshore of the California
   coast.

   Downstream of the ridging, and to the southwest through south of a
   broad, deep mid-level low centered just to the south of the
   northeastern Canadian Arctic, large-scale mid-level troughing will
   be maintained.  Within this regime, amplification may commence along
   an axis across the Mississippi Valley into southern Great Plains,
   where several smaller scale perturbations may begin to gradually
   consolidate by early Friday.  Before this occurs, it appears that a
   preceding short wave impulse, within an initially more zonal regime,
   will accelerate east-northeastward across the Southeast and southern
   Atlantic coast.

   In the wake of the Southeastern impulse, there may be considerable
   further lower/mid tropospheric drying across the northeastern Gulf
   of Mexico into the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys, today
   through tonight.  However, it appears that a surface frontal zone
   will remain stalled across the southwestern Atlantic (east-northeast
   through near/north of the Bahamas) into Florida Peninsula coastal
   areas south of Cape Canaveral.

   ...Florida...
   There remains considerable spread among the various models
   concerning wave development along the stalled frontal zone across
   the southwestern Atlantic.  In association with the short wave
   impulse forecast to accelerate across the southern Atlantic coast,
   generally well to the north of the front, it appears that the most
   substantive wave today through tonight probably will develop north
   through east-northeast of the Bahamas.  However, various model
   output, perhaps most notably the NAM/Rapid Refresh/and HRRR, suggest
   that the development of a persistent weak cyclonic circulation is
   possible near or just east-southeast of the Space Coast.  This might
   become a focus for sufficient destabilization to support some risk
   for weak thunderstorms development, mainly near or east of the
   coastal waters.

   ..Kerr.. 01/27/2022

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