Jan 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 28 04:21:21 UTC 2022 (20220128 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220128 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220128 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220128 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220128 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220128 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280421

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1021 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today
   through tonight.

   ...Discussion...
   Models indicate that a fairly prominent mid-level high center will
   gradually weaken while shifting southeast of the southern Cascades
   and northern Sierra Nevada, through the Great Basin, as an offshore
   mid-level low is forced eastward toward the California coast. 
   Otherwise, it appears that larger-scale mid/upper ridging within the
   westerlies will remain relatively amplified across the eastern
   mid-latitude Pacific through much of western North America into
   early Saturday.

   Downstream of this ridging, it still appears that several digging
   short wave perturbations will consolidate into amplifying
   larger-scale mid/upper troughing.  The larger-scale wave is forecast
   to take on an increasing neutral tilt late today through tonight,
   while progressing east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the
   Atlantic Seaboard.  This may include the evolution of an embedded
   mid-level low across and/or east of the southern Appalachians by 12Z
   Saturday, but models continue to generally indicate that much more
   prominent surface cyclogenesis will be focused offshore of the Mid
   Atlantic coast, near the Gulf Stream.  This may commence along a
   stalled frontal zone, east/northeast of Florida's Space coast, later
   this morning.

   In association with these developments, destabilization sufficient
   to support increasing thunderstorm development appears probable. 
   However, this is expected to remain focused well east of southern
   and mid Atlantic coastal areas, mainly in association with warm
   sector boundary-layer moistening near/east of the Gulf Stream, but
   also perhaps later tonight, as strong lower/mid tropospheric cooling
   spreads east of the Carolina/Georgia coast.

   ..Kerr.. 01/28/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z