SPC AC 281248
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The upper-air pattern over the CONUS this period will feature:
1. Synoptic-scale ridging over the West -- associated with an
anticyclone shifting southeastward across the northern/eastern Great
Basin. This is part of a progressive "omega" pattern, bracketed by
a shortwave trough now over NM and a cyclone initially well offshore
from CA. The Pacific cyclone will move eastward toward CA but
remain offshore until the next period (day 2).
2. Persistent mean eastern troughing, reinforced by a strengthening
perturbation resulting from phasing of the NM shortwave trough and
another trough, apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions
of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley to MO and eastern KS. The
combined shortwave will amplify and enlarge throughout this period,
as it crosses the lower/middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, then
the central/southern Appalachians. By 12Z a deep, nearly closed
synoptic trough should result from Lake Erie southward over the
Carolinas then southwestward over northern FL and the eastern Gulf.
As that eastern trough takes shape, a weak surface low -- initially
analyzed over the Gulf Stream east of central FL -- will deepen and
eject northeastward. By 12Z, an intense low should be located over
the Atlantic, roughly east of the Delmarva Peninsula and south of
Cape Cod. Thunder potential related to the cyclogenesis/
frontogenesis should remain over Atlantic waters. Increasing
"Nor'easter" winter-weather concerns will exist overnight near the
coastal Mid-Atlantic -- see latest WPC heavy-snow discussion.
..Edwards.. 01/28/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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