Jan 29, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 29 12:28:36 UTC 2022 (20220129 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220129 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220129 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220129 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220129 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220129 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291228

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0628 AM CST Sat Jan 29 2022

   Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm areas are not forecast today over the contiguous U.S.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   The mid/upper-level pattern will remain characterized by mean
   troughing in the East and ridging in the West.  Within the large
   area of cyclonic flow in the eastern CONUS, a basal trough initially
   over parts of GA and the Carolinas will eject northeastward offshore
   from the Mid-Atlantic and New England today.  By 00Z, a compact
   cyclone should form at 500 mb near Cape Cod and move northeastward
   to southern New Brunswick by 06Z.  An intense surface low --
   analyzed at 11Z roughly east of the southern Delmarva Peninsula and
   south of ACK, will eject northeastward parallel to the 500-mb low,
   but farther east across Nova Scotia.

   Among short-term progs, the RAP most aggressively destabilizes
   mid/upper-level lapse rates in some of the elevated conveyor today
   near Cape Cod and parts of the ME coast.  That strongest UVV
   scenario results in minor buoyancy (MUCAPE of about 75 J/kg or less)
   astride the -20 C isotherm, and rooted between 550-600 mb.  While
   brief/isolated lightning (and associated thundersnow) cannot be
   ruled out in the most vigorously convective portions of the conveyor
   northwest of the surface low, overall lightning potential appears
   too low, isolated and conditional to warrant a 10%/general thunder
   area at this time.

   A southern-stream perturbation aloft, with an accompanying broad,
   weak, closed 500-mb cyclone now off the CA coastline, will move
   across southern CA this evening and overnight, reaching southwestern
   AZ by 12Z tomorrow.  Very elevated/midlevel destabilization above a
   moist layer, with weak buoyancy, also is evident in a few forecast
   soundings late this afternoon into this evening around 500 mb, near
   the SAN-YUM corridor.  However, a deep, very dry layer will exist
   below any shallow midlevel convection, and thunder potential appears
   too minimal for an outlook area.

   ..Edwards/Goss.. 01/29/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z