Jan 30, 2022 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 30 12:50:23 UTC 2022 (20220130 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220130 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220130 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220130 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220130 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220130 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 301250

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 AM CST Sun Jan 30 2022

   Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   A progressive mid/upper-level pattern is expected this period, with
   a gradual eastward shift and deamplification of the eastern North
   American troughing underway, and continuing through day-2.  A series
   of low-amplitude shortwaves will continue to traverse the associated
   northwesterly to cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley
   and central/northern Appalachians.  The associated strong surface
   cold front has penetrated well into the Caribbean, and a post-
   frontal, continental/polar anticyclone will move slowly eastward
   over the Gulf and FL.  This will help to maintain a stable boundary
   layer over the CONUS east of the Rockies, though elevated thunder
   potential will develop over parts of west and central TX, and
   southeastern NM, ahead of a southern-stream mid/upper cyclone now
   centered over southwestern AZ.

   The 500-mb low over AZ will move eastward to south-central NM near
   LRU/HMN by 00Z, then east-southeastward to the INK/MAF area by 12Z
   tomorrow.  Beneath DCVA aloft and strongly difluent mid/upper flow
   preceding the low, the western part of a regime of elevated warm and
   moist advection will strengthen in low/middle levels tonight. 
   Related moistening and destabilization will lead to the development
   of midlevel buoyancy extending into icing layers suitable for
   lightning generation, with MUCAPE generally in the 100-500 J/kg
   range.  This will support isolated thunderstorms initially over
   parts of the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend/Davis Mountains vicinity and
   southeastern NM/southern Llano Estacado this evening, expanding
   toward south-central TX by the end of the period.  Moisture above
   the boundary layer will be greater with southeastward extent over
   time tonight, supporting the widely scattered thunderstorm coverage
   after 09Z across parts of the Edwards Plateau and southern Hill
   Country region, toward parts of the nearby middle TX coastal plain.

   ..Edwards.. 01/30/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z