Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Victoria, TX...Pearland, TX...Mission Bend, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
12,973
1,982,963
Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Victoria, TX...Pearland, TX...Mission Bend, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
13,023
2,112,030
Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Victoria, TX...Pearland, TX...Mission Bend, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
12,993
1,907,469
Sugar Land, TX...Missouri City, TX...Victoria, TX...Mission Bend, TX...Rosenberg, TX...
SPC AC 310539
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Sun Jan 30 2022
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND...
...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the Lower and Middle Texas Coast vicinity this
afternoon. Locally strong wind gusts, marginally severe hail, or a
brief tornado may occur with the strongest storms.
...Synopsis...
A weakening mid-level trough will meander across Texas through the
day as a more pronounced upper trough amplifies across the northern
CONUS, with cool and stable surface conditions emanating from the
northern Rockies and overspreading much of the central U.S. Across
central Texas, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start
of the period in advance of the decaying mid-level trough. However,
ascent with the aforementioned trough will gradually overspread a
moister air mass closer to the Gulf in portions of southern Texas.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in number and intensity into
the afternoon, with a couple strong to potentially severe storms
possible.
...Portions of southeast Texas...
Elevated convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across central
TX as the aforementioned trough slowly encounters slightly deeper,
richer moisture impinging on the shoreline from the Gulf of Mexico.
While surface temperatures/dewpoints are expected to be modest by
afternoon (i.e. barely exceeding 60 F), rain-cooled air from initial
elevated storms is expected to reinforce a weak baroclinic zone
extending across portions of the TX Coastal Bend. On the immediate
warm side of the boundary, mediocre surface-based buoyancy may
materialize amid poor lapse rates as cool mid-level temperatures
overspread the 58-60F surface dewpoints. As such, the elevated
convection is expected to grow upscale while also attempting to
become surface-based, with the development of an MCS and apparent
MCV likely based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus.
While deep-layer shear should be modest overall, locally higher
values of 0-3 km effective SRH may accompany the baroclinic zone.
Embedded rotating storms capable of producing a couple damaging
gusts and perhaps an instance of marginally severe hail/a brief
tornado may materialize should storms become surface based,
warranting the maintenance of the Category 1/Marginal risk.
..Squitieri.. 01/31/2022
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z
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