Feb 1, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 1 16:20:29 UTC 2022 (20220201 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220201 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220201 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220201 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220201 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220201 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011620

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1020 AM CST Tue Feb 01 2022

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely over the conterminous U.S.

   ...LA...
   Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
   moving slowly eastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring ahead of
   this system offshore of the LA coast.  There remains a low
   probability of a few lightning flashes near the immediate coast this
   afternoon, but the bulk of the deep convection is expected to remain
   offshore.  This potential will wane after 00z.

   Elsewhere, dry and stable conditions are expected to prelude
   organized thunderstorms today and tonight.

   ..Hart.. 02/01/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z