Feb 2, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Feb 2 00:35:21 UTC 2022 (20220202 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20220202 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20220202 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20220202 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20220202 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20220202 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020035

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0635 PM CST Tue Feb 01 2022

   Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight.

   ...01z Update...

   Weak, southern-stream short-wave trough is progressing east across
   the central Gulf Basin early this evening. This feature appears to
   be partly responsible for earlier lightning activity along the
   northern extent of warm advection convection that extended across
   the northern Gulf toward the LA Gulf Coast. While low-level warm
   advection, and associated weak convective clusters, continue; 00z
   soundings from this region suggest the probability of lightning is
   decreasing. Both LIX and LCH exhibit poor lapse rates above 3km and
   subsidence is expected post short wave. Although showers will linger
   near the MS Delta the prospect for lightning is low.

   ..Darrow.. 02/02/2022

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z